The 2020 shutdown is over, and people are clinking glasses again. That fresh thirst is good news for anyone who brings in new bottles.

Today’s news shouts about tariffs and trade fights. It looks messy, but those bumps open lanes for quick movers who look past the noise.

Think back to the late ’90s. Newspaper print still ruled, and online news was tiny. A few years later, print giants went the way of the dinosaurs. Fortune changes hands in times of crisis. The same hand-off is starting now.

Big brands feel heavy and slow. Their grip is slipping. Clear-eyed newcomers can step in, fill the gaps, and become tomorrow’s leaders.

Built-In Safety

It’s important to realize that the alcoholic drinks business is pretty much recession proof. However, these days we might be seeing signs not only of health, but actual growth.

Here’s just one example: Data show that spirits supplier volumes hit 312 million 9-liter cases in 2024, up 1.1 percent while most retail categories slipped.

And spirits are not alone. Bottles move when other goods stall—hard-wired resilience.

Paychecks Up, Pour-Time Up

Average hourly earnings reached $36.24 in May 2025, +3.9 percent year-over-year. The Consumer Price Index report shows prices up only 2.3 percent.

So what does that mean?

It means consumers are left with a lot more “fun money” in their pockets. And where there’s more “fun money” to play with, alcohol sales are sure to benefit.

This is great for the whole alcoholic drinks industry, but especially for new brands that are looking to get a piece of the market.

When people have “fun money” they tend to experiment more and search for stuff that’s out of the ordinary. Smart importers can and should satisfy the consumer need for the “new.”

Bars Need More Bottles

Restaurant and bar sales jumped 7.8 percent YoY in April 2025, yet the wholesale inventory ratio for beer, wine and spirits slid to a three-year low.

This opens up a lot of shelf space. The need to fill up the shelves presents opportunties for those that are prepared to take them.

This goes back to the point we made earlier that new market players, especially importers, have a unique opportunity to enter the market and grow.

Profits Up

The overall alcohol CPI rose 1.8 percent, but the import price index for beverage spirits (HS 22) fell 2.4 percent year-over-year. Landing costs drift down, shelf tags creep up. This means each bottle poured fattens the slice of profit.

If you look at the Alcoholic Beverages trend for urban consumers (chart below) you see that it always goes up. However, note the serious bump after 2020 and going into 2025.

This increased demand ups the margins and creates more profits.

Tequila Takes the Lead

NIQ on-premise data show tequila as the only major spirit in value growth: +0.7 percent in U.S. bars and +1.4 percent worldwide. Premium pours grab the biggest bite—agave owns the spotlight.

But it’s not a done deal, as we’ll see next…

Tariff Whiplash

A February tariff threat of 25 percent on tequila sent brands racing to ship months of stock, then pausing new deals. Buyers now want steady, drama-free supply.

Oddly enough, the whole tarrifs drama did nothing more than increase demand for new brands in general.

As things start to settle down, new brands, most of them imported, will emerge and take advantage of the American consumer and their desire to try new things.

Lanes Filling Fast

The need for new products will propel smart brands that are entering the market.

The Craft Spirits Data Project counts 3,069 active U.S. distilleries—up 11.5 percent in a year—while shelf space stays flat.

Having said that, most of the demand will be filled by imported products.

The Time Window

Built-in demand, rising wages, thin stock, tame inflation, cheaper imports, tequila heat, tariff tremors, and swelling competition converge right now.

As always, you can contact us with your specific importing situation. Just use the contact form here.

Also, you can get the free Alcohol Importer Toolbox – see details below.